The daily wire is a far right wing fake news site. The coronavirus numbers are continuing to accelerate and deaths are happening at an alarming rate both in the UK and US. Here is the article that the daily wire is basing some of its reporting on:
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/What Neil Ferguson is apparently saying is that the UK has done a good job adjusting and he now expects them to avoid the absolute worst case scenario if they hold to it. He is not saying the danger has passed or that he messed up the original estimates. There are still all kinds of assumptions and predictions being thrown around. We know more than we did last week, but everyone is still trying to figure this all out and the data is coming in as a live stream.
The idea that the virus has been spreading undetected and that most people who get it aren't even going to notice is highly enticing to those who want to get back to normal. I get it, I want to get back to normal too. The thing is that there are plenty of examples happening right now of hospitals getting overwhelmed, supply shortages, and deaths of even young healthy people. The risk is real and the consequences are staring us in the face, even if a good percentage of the US will ultimately be fine. Why is everyone so quick to gamble with their lives and the lives of those around them?
Today the US surpassed 1,000 deaths. We are just reaching two months after the first reported US case, and now we have somewhere in the vicinity of 70,000 cases growing by over 10,000 each day (at this point it's going as fast as testing allows).
The UK is taking things more seriously and helping to flatten the curve, but they are going to have a lot of deaths as well and I'm not sure that revised number makes much sense unless they really knock it back. The US is simply screwed. We still don't get it. The way we live our usual lives is totally incompatible with how we have to live to stop this virus. So many people aren't willing to adapt well enough or quickly enough.
Ultimately, the number of total deaths are highly dependent on how fast they can ram through useful treatments and the eventual vaccine. If we can just hold the line and do what we can to limit the spread for a few more weeks, hopefully the first wave will fall off and the systems will get a chance to adjust.
Moderna's human vaccine trials start early summer. Hopefully they get quick results and can fast track it. They say they might start producing it by end of summer if it shows good initial results. Could be distributing it by Fall, if it works...
Hydroxychloroquine testing is ongoing. China says it doesn't work, but I think we've learned to ignore everything they say by now. Some real studies should show results in a couple of weeks. Other treatments are also being tested, but again, it will be a few weeks just to get initial data.